Bolton and trying to validate the war option

John Bolton, president of the United States National Security Advisor, May 6 announced in a statement from Abraham Lincoln’s aircraft carrier to the US Central Command (CENTCOM) that the cause was “a growing body of worrying signs and warnings” The dispatch of a ship is a clear message for Iran. Here are some points to follow:

Following the counteraction of the Islamic Republic of Iran to the introduction of terrorism in the terrorist group, the American military wing put some reactive behaviour on the agenda. For example, Commander Centcom quickly went to visit the King of Saudi Arabia and the President of Iraq to somehow tell the legitimacy of his presence in the region.

Other actions of Centcom were to release the F-35s to the West Asia region for the first time. The release of the film is said to have been a response to Iran’s decision to launch a Centcom terrorist.

These actions in the two areas of political and military affairs, which followed the media, were more of a response to Iran’s decision than an action. So the reality is that these actions do not make the war option more serious for America, but it also brings about defence against Iran’s possible actions.

But what John Bolton has said about the deployment of Abraham Lincoln to the region and Iran, although it is clear, but not valid, since a month ago, the US Navy had announced that the USS Abraham Lincoln, in line with his routine mission to the western region Asia will be deployed.

Bolton tries to validate the option of war for Iran, albeit with the threat of a routine deployment of a US warship, while some experts working with Trump called this effort an empty threat.

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ISIS leader’s presence again

Yesterday, one of the media channels attributed to ISIS released an 18-minute video, most of which was dedicated to ISIS headed Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. This is the second time a movie from al-Baghdadi has been released. But on this film, with some assumptions about its reality, a few points are followed;

Al-Baghdadi is clearly in the film following the dipole of Islam-Christianity. Although he refers to what has happened to ISIS in the Syrian bogus, he continually speaks of the necessity of jihading with the rabbis, and also suggests supporters to them, which could include some Arab states. This emphasis could lead to the activation of ISIS members and supporters in some Western and Eastern countries.

Al-Baghdadi seems to be appealing to the members and supporters of ISIS in different countries. With the video (if it is credible), while denouncing rumours about his death, which could boost the mood of the ISIS sympathies, by naming some ISIS commanders killed in those years, they prove their supporters They are grateful for their plots and all have been effective in the success of this group.

Al-Baghdadi insists that God has commanded Muslims not jihad and that they should continue to be jihad. Specifically, the Crusaders and their supporters will be the main target of this jihad.

He congratulates new donors in some countries to expose ISIS. At the end of the speech, al-Baghdadi, one of the attendees at the meeting, provided him with individual reports for each of the alleged ISIL provinces; Khorasan, Yemen, Somalia, Libya, Tunisia, West Africa, Central Africa, Iraq and sham. What is highlighted in these reports is “the province of Turkey”!

Al-Baghdadi does not name Sri Lanka, and at the end of the film, a text is read by someone else who has a few sentences about the operation in Sri Lanka. Accordingly, there is the possibility that the film has been prepared before the events in Sri Lanka. It also has a polynomial about operations in Zulfi in northern Riyadh. The final text of the film speaks of the fight against al-Saud in the island of Mohammed (Saudi Arabia).

Considerations for immediate response to Israel

Israel, targeting the T4 Air Base, which has resulted in the martyrdom of several Iranian military advisers, was exploited by the use of the tense atmosphere of Russia and the United States following the assertion that the Syrian government’s chemical attack on the Duma. In this regard, what is certain is the need to respond to Israel at least at the same level as the attack on T4. But the other question is when the response time should be. However, immediate responses will mainly increase deterrence, but there are already considerations for it:

The Syrian government and its allies are on the road to victory over the terrorists and the United States and its allies have lost some of their means in Syria. Hence, the hasty movement in the atmosphere where the level of tension between Russia and the United States is high is likely to trigger a larger war for Syria, which may destroy the achievements of the past or worsen the conditions for further achievements.

Iran’s participation in the victory of the western ghouta of Damascus did not have a serious and high level of participation, and therefore Iran’s skirt did not survive the charge of a chemical attack. This led to the accusations against Russia and Syria, if Iran, as the most important resistance government in the region, would carry out an expeditious attack, it could be the focus of Western attention and as a result, there would be many problems for the axis of resistance.

Trump internal scandal and attack on Syria

Three days ago, the United States, with Britain and France, fired more than 100 rockets at bases and some strategic sites in Syria on the pretext of building and using the Syrian government of chemical weapons.
However, the scale and outcome of US missile strikes, which was overwhelmingly and practically uninteresting, has left many analysts with serious questions about the underlying objectives of the operation.

Analysis and evaluation:
Donald Trump, undoubtedly one of the most challenging presidents of the United States, has been in the country for several hundred years. His moral and sometimes economic and security scandals have made him the most marginalized international figure in the world today.
He is currently facing a number of scandals in the internal scene, of which at least four of the most important are:

  • Multiple allegations of sexual corruption and illegitimate relationships
  • The relationship of his campaign with Russia
  • The relationship between the lawyer Trump (Michael Cohen) and the Russian elements.
  • The relationship between Tramp and his children with the New York Financial Mafia

Contrary to the general belief that national security issues are separate from the political one, the behaviors of the US president represent another truth.
One of the most important targets of a missile strike on some Syrian installations seems to be the distortion of public opinion about the deviations and scandals surrounding the White House.

Fooling sadr in the election of the prime minister?!

Muqtada al-Sadr has at least twice emphasized that he likes Iran, not the enemy. Once, just a few days ago, when all the neighboring countries of Iraq were Iraq’s friends, not their enemies. Again, in the form of a declaration of 29 articles for national reconciliation in 2016 calling for the departure of a friend (Iran) and an enemy (US) from Iraq. His sense of friendship is, of course, different from others.

Al-Sadr and his forces now have received the greatest demand from the Iraqi people. Any thought in deceiving him in the election of the prime minister will have a profound effect on Iran’s imagination, his actions in opposition to Iran, and his convergence with Iran’s rivals. The folk races will have a plan for a win-win game. Sadr has shown that he is interested in this game in recent days.

The European Supplementary Package is subject to “deconcentration of Iran and the United States”; a few points

According to the chairman of the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission of Iran’s Parliament, Europe has postponed its support package to JCPOA for “deconstruction of Iran and the United States”.

  1. The European protection package from JCPOA came after the United States unilaterally withdrawn from the nuclear deal in a “tense action”.
  2. It should not be forgotten that the aim of the European security package is “safeguarding the interests of Iran” in JCPOA and that any condition for its implementation should be in the interest of Iran. The nuclear deal will continue as long as the interests of Iran’s participation in that agreement are more than the benefits of leaving it.
  3. The next thing to note is that the main source of tension in US-Iran relations was the United States itself, the latest example of which is the withdrawal of a multilateral international agreement and the imposition of unilateral and illegal sanctions.
  4. The suspension of the implementation of a relief package with the United States is somehow “dropping the ball in the land of Iran” and “creating a new commitment” for our country, in case of its failure to execute it, not Europe, which would be blamed on Iran itself. Such a condition could give Europe a justification for not providing a practical guarantee of Iran.
  5. In addition, European policy towards action must be seen in the context of its broader policy toward Iran. It should not be forgotten that Europe continues to press Iran in some areas, such as allegations of terrorism and human rights. Such clauses in relation to JCPOA could open Europe’s hands in this direction.
  6. Desertification with the United States also means entering regional and missile talks with the country in which Europe and the United States share common positions with Iran.

Israel’s strategy towards Hezbollah and Lebanon

Israeli President Reuven Rivlin visited Sunday on a military operation to demolish alleged Hezbollah tunnels on the northern border of Palestine, saying that the battle with Hezbollah over these tunnels would ultimately lead to the destruction of Lebanon. “We know the Lebanese government for what happens on its territory,” he added. The attempt to equate the whole of Lebanon with Hezbollah is a strategy Israel has been pursuing for several years. After the victory of Hezbollah and its allies in the 2018 parliamentary elections, Israeli education minister Naftali Bennett wrote “Hezbollah = Lebanon”. Prior to him, several political and military officials of the regime have repeatedly emphasized this equation. But what is the purpose of Israel to instill this equation in the Lebanese nation and government?

– Specifically, Israel is working to unify Hezbollah and Lebanon, making it possible to pressure Hezbollah from inside Lebanon and limit its behavior. In this context, Israel tries to push Hezbollah from two perspectives;

1. The Lebanese nation: Israel seeks to impose the Hezbollah-Lebanon equation in such a way that all Lebanese people will be regarded as Hezbollah partner in future battles and have to pay for it. If Israel succeeds in inducing this equation while repeating the possibility of a war with Hezbollah, it is likely that some people will reduce their support for Hezbollah and some will increase their opposition to it. This change of behavior can also affect the type of government’s exposure to Hezbollah.

2. The Lebanese government: For Israel, Hezbollah is equal to Lebanon, and so the Lebanese government must respond to the actions of this movement. Repeating this proposition, with pressures directly affecting the Lebanese government, could increase the possibility of government restrictions on Hezbollah.

– The results of the parliamentary elections of May this year showed that Hezbollah has behaved in its domestic politics, with which, in effect, more people have been with him. Some survey research also confirms this. But US-Israeli efforts continue to weaken ties between Hezbollah and Lebanon.